"World politics": Politics and opinion polls today

Le 31 janvier 2012 par IVOIREBUSINESS - Politics and opinion polls seem to be linked in this world of international communication where media cleaning and media training keep on playing a predominant role in the international political

system! We must not forget the fact that political communication stemmed from the anglo-saxon spirit namely: USA and England...Therefore, the accuracy of opinion polls in predicting elections outcomes is now well established nowadays: In the United states of America, where modern sampling techniques were introduced by "Georges Gallup" in the (1930s), the average error in predicting the major parties' shares of the vote at national elections between (1950 and 1988) was a mere (1.5 per cent).So, accuracy is similar, through not always quite as good, in other democracies. But what is the broader significance of polls? Do they contribute to, or detract from, democracy? To some extent, opinion polls contribute to the democratic process in several ways: They bring into the public realm the voices of people who would otherwise go unheard. Meanwhile, they are the only form of participation (apart from the ballot box itself), in which all count for one and none for more than one. Polls are based on direct contact by interviewers with the public; they get behind the group leaders who claim to speak on behalf of our members. Polls enable politicians to keep in touch with the popular mood and polls give some insight into the reasons for election results. In short, "opinion polls oil the wheels of democracy". Yet, it would be wrong to overstate the impact of opinion polls. Ordinary people answer the questions, but they don't ask them. The agenda is set in capital city such as: "Washington", "FRANKFURT", "Paris", "London" and "Ottawa" by party officials and journalists who commission polls. Moreover, the concern of the political elite, caught up in the intracacies of day to day politics, differ from those of ordinary people: This reminds us of the economist who conducted an opinion poll about inflation, only to discover that many people thought, quite correctly, that it meant blowing up tyres! More seriously, people may not even have thought about the topic before answering questions on it! In the same trend, they may give an opinion where they have none; or agree to a statement, because it's the easiest thing to do. This leads to the criticism that opinion polls construct, and even shape, public opinion at the same time as they measure it. Perhaps, it is just as well, then, that most politicians take public opinion polls with a pinch of salt. Even politicians who are sensitive to public opinion often prefer to judge it from their mailbag rather than through opinion polls! Right now, in the current french political background, permanent and recent opinion polls are in favour of the left wing presidential candidate, "François Hollande"...Down the line, those opinions polls ought to be confirmed or invalidated in May during the next french presidential elections. It's the way it is, as far as politics is concerned in this contemporary world, where results still matter...Wait and see!
(Yves T Bouazo)